Osprey at wadi Al Hansa, late October
Yesterday I hypothesised from the tracking data that most passage Montagu's harrier summer in Eastern Germany and Poland.
Like with Montagu's harrier from western and central Europe, there has been quite a bit of tracking of Swedish Osprey this autumn and winter. This has been carried out by the centre for animal movement research at Lund university. You can follow the movements at http://angel.ekol.lu.se/gjuse/
Only one bird out of a dozen or so Swedish birds flew through any Libyan air space. This bird is mapped below. All the others flew further west mostly through Morocco or Algeria.
map showing the one passage osprey that entered Libya
I think it is fair enough to hypothesise that birds which pass through and winter in Libya come from east of Sweden probably from European Russia. The birds seen in north east Libya such as Wadi Al Hamsa (top photo) must have a very high probability of coming from there.